The Table Is Set For Rate Cuts In 2024

General Greg Bedard 30 Nov

The Canadian economy weakened far more than expected in the third quarter, down 1.1% annually. However, the Q2 figures were revised up significantly from a 0.2% decline to a rise of 1.4%. Such are the vagaries of economic data. The Canadian economy is contracting despite the positive impetus of rapid population growth.

Bottom Line

Today’s release is welcome news for the Bank of Canada. Tiff Macklem said last week that the Bank’s interest rate hikes were doing their job to return inflation to its 2% target. The Governing Council meets once again on December 6th. We expect a more dovish press release suggesting that the policy rate has likely peaked. Market-driven interest rates have fallen sharply since early October, taking fixed mortgage rates down significantly (see chart below).

Traders in overnight swaps are betting the Bank of Canada will loosen monetary policy as early as April 2024, little changed from before the release. I expect that the Bank of Canada will gradually cut interest rates beginning in the second quarter of next year, taking the overnight rate down 200 basis points to 3.0% by year’s end.

Check out the full article here:

Q3 GDP Weaker Than Expected Paving The Way For Future Rate Cuts – Dominion Lending Centres

Canadian Home Sales Slump Accelerates in October

Latest News Greg Bedard 15 Nov

Housing affordability is the number-one issue causing the significant decline in housing activity, adding to PM Justin Trudeau’s political problems. With the growing impact of unaffordable housing and the slowing labour market, activity in the real estate market should remain subdued for the rest of this year.

Home sales dropped 5.6% month-over-month (m/m) in October–the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the sharpest slowdown since June 2022. Sales fell in 9 of the ten provinces, notably in P.E.I. (-15.3%), Alberta (-8.3%), B.C. (-6.9%), Ontario (-5.5%), and Quebec (-5.1%), while rising 2.2% in New Brunswick.

Check out the full report below:

“Canadian Home Sales Slump Accelerates in October” from @DLCCanadaInc Chief Economist @DrSherryCooper https://dominionlending.ca/economic-insights/canadian-home-sales-slump-accelerates-in-october